Reilly Opelka vs Ignacio Buse Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

In this upcoming tennis match, a detailed statistical analysis highlights significant differences in the players' recent performances, which could influence the match's outcome. Examining second serve performance from the last six months, Buse has won 40.57% of points on their second serve, whereas Opelka has achieved a higher percentage with 48.6%. This second serve performance is a crucial metric highly correlated with predicting match winners.

When it comes to return games, Buse has outperformed Opelka by winning 45.06% of their opponent's second serve points as opposed to Opelka's 40.09% in recent form. Equally crucial are first serve return stats, where Buse has claimed 30.8% of points compared to Opelka's 17.95%. These return statistics are highly indicative of which player might be favored in this head-to-head matchup.

Performance pressure reveals Buse has saved 54.42% of breakpoints recently, while Opelka has a slightly better breakpoint saving percentage at 65.18%. Under pressure, this statistic provides useful insights, particularly for in-game betting scenarios. Breakpoint conversion rates further accentuate these differences, with Buse converting 33.33% of breakpoint opportunities versus Opelka's 20.63%.

Over the past year, Buse's performance overview indicates a win rate of 61.64% (W/L 45/28), which surpasses Opelka's win record of 53.66% (W/L 22/19). However, the quality of competition faced by Opelka is noteworthy, with opponents averaging a much higher rank at 82.66 compared to Buse's 259.42. This metric suggests Opelka has been competing at a higher level, primarily on the Main Tour where he has won 54.55% of matches, compared to Buse primarily playing at the Challengers/ITF level with a 59.62% win rate.

The best surface performances for each player are pivotal when considering surface-specific predictions. Buse excels on Clay with a 61% win rate (W/L 95/60), while Opelka's optimal surface is I.hard, where he holds a 67% win rate (W/L 46/23). Conversely, Opelka's least successful surface is Grass with a 40% win rate (W/L 10/15), and Buse struggles most on I.hard, winning 25% of matches (W/L 1/3).

Additionally, in deciding set performance, Opelka demonstrates a stronger record, winning 65% of deciding sets across all matches in the last year, compared to Buse's 42%. This particular stat is valuable for live match predictions, especially if the confrontation extends to a deciding set.

Based on these analyzed statistics, Opelka appears favored due to his higher-level competition exposure, superior second serve performance, and robust record in deciding sets. These factors collectively suggest that Opelka might have the edge in this matchup. While Buse showcases strong return stats, Opelka's experience and superior breakpoint metrics under high-pressure situations strengthen the prediction of his potential victory in this encounter.